THE Power Balance? house

The Generational Power Balance

Throughout history, the clash between the old and the young has been a defining feature of both reality and literature. Parents have power over their children… but as those juveniles approach adolescence, they begin to put pressure on their parents’ power. They test the rules; they rebel; they create their own rules. The parents are puzzled, frustrated and resentful about the shift in the balance of power.  They fight back; try to exert their leadership in an attempt to maintain their power. But as they grow towards old age, they are forced to relinquish it, while the world changes into a place they cease to recognize from their youth.

The friction between old and young is set to become a feature of the twenty first century, as we approach a period where the balance of power reaches virgin territory.  This is not to say that relationships between the generations are expected to worsen; rather that the unprecedented demographic changes to come will have knock-on effects that we cannot yet imagine. 

How can we be so sure that trials lie ahead? Demographic trends are incredibly easy to predict. Decades pass between the birth of children and their growth into adulthood, while rises in life expectancy due to affluence and better medical care are gradual. Consequently, it is possible to predict accurately what proportion of the population will be economically active, and what proportion will be dependant, for a considerable time in the future.  Hence, we know that rising as people are living longer and having fewer children – and having them later in life - population structure will skew much more towards the aged.

Statistical prediction is one thing. Predicting the implications of such trends on society is another thing entirely. In the 1900s, demographers could – or at least should – have predicted that trend toward city-living as opposed to country-living was likely to continue, as indeed it did, becoming one of the most defining features of the twentieth century. The political, economic, social and environmental implications of this shift were much harder to predict, however.

Many economically developed countries already fear that by 2025, there will be too few young tax-payers in the working population to support those in old age. This is the generation that requires pensions, medical care, local services and other benefits. Governments are already putting in steps, such as compulsory work pensions and increases in the retirement age in an attempt to mitigate the problem.  How effective these measures prove to be remains to be seen. Moreover, this isn’t just a predicament for richer countries.  All less economically developed countries outside the AIDS stricken regions of Sub-Saharan African are experiencing the same demographic trends, and, unless their economies develop extremely quickly, their populations will suffer much more. 

Economically, therefore, adults will be at the mercy of the elderly.  Governments will be obliged to put money and efforts into the provision for the elderly and working adults will have to forego their share. But perhaps such a conclusion is too glib. The scenario could pan out in differently.  After all, rising elderly populations also bring opportunities for the young, such as in employment in products and services geared towards the older generation. Moreover, the shift comes at a time when seniority is beginning to count for less in the workplace than in the past. Youthful traits, such as innovation, creativity and familiarity with new technology are being recognized more and more. Perhaps power will not shift towards the elderly as much as demographic data suggests. 

Add another twist, and we realize that the older generation are not the old-fashioned bedridden fuddy-duddies that they perhaps were perceived to be in the past. The over-seventies look younger and are fitter than ever. Moreover, their tastes are less divergent from those of younger generations than they used to be. They listen to rock music, study at university, embrace new hobbies, travel and socialize. The lines between youth and age, culturally at least, have blurred. 

This may mean that a standard retirement age may become a thing of the past, as vigorous people in their seventies and eighties choose to carry on working. Such a trend would greatly ease the tax burden on the younger generations, as well as giving the older generation more choice. However, it comes as a two edged coin, as young, inexperienced workers would be forced to compete for jobs with the seasoned workers,; while those in employment may never get the promotion they desire if the old guy at the top refuses to quit.

Of course, the predictions envisaged in this scenario will only come to pass if the world develops in a relatively benign way. In the twentieth century population shifts were irrevocably altered by world war and economic depression, and similar events could afflict coming generations too.  Until we know for sure, we can rest easy in the knowledge that the problems which arise now are the problems of success – problems that arise through economic growth, better medication, reduced inequality and by maintaining peace.